{
  "certificate_version": "1",
  "record": {
    "schema": "scientific/1",
    "archetype": "scientific",
    "issued_at": "2026-09-16T23:18:20.738013+00:00",
    "subject": {
      "system_under_test": "gradient-boosted trees (XGBoost, 12 lag features) on monthly atmospheric CO2",
      "data": "Mauna Loa monthly atmospheric CO2 (NOAA GML, 1958\u20132026, the Keeling curve)",
      "data_sha256": "c9a91a170d09d16afaaad56c4f383ed4fcb7fa0da967998694842d5c8168bcf3"
    },
    "claim": "the system claims to accurately forecast the scientific series",
    "verdict": "falsified",
    "finding": {
      "gap": "cannot_extrapolate",
      "effect": "the tree-based model's error (7.006 ppm) is 0.2\u00d7 WORSE than the seasonal+drift baseline (1.223 ppm)",
      "detail": "XGBoost cannot extrapolate the monotonic CO2 trend: trees predict within their training range, so on the held-out future (growth accelerated from 0.79 to 2.57 ppm/yr) it under-predicts by up to ~11 ppm. The 'accurate forecast' claim is falsified by a model that structurally cannot forecast a trend"
    },
    "metrics": {
      "rmse_model": 7.006,
      "rmse_seasonal_baseline": 1.223,
      "skill_ratio": 0.175,
      "annual_growth_early": 0.79,
      "annual_growth_late": 2.57,
      "n_months": 822,
      "n_test": 60
    },
    "record_hash": "048e61aff7e32bee7af770d8e9dcfd04436f1acfffc1f6419acc0e5cab5c83c8"
  },
  "signature": {
    "algorithm": "ed25519",
    "key_id": "5d303baa00a6b243",
    "verifier_version": "0.2.0",
    "signed_hash": "048e61aff7e32bee7af770d8e9dcfd04436f1acfffc1f6419acc0e5cab5c83c8",
    "signature": "4a4774d6daecb34c387a422558f691a7445ccea292b05887e45160ce5ab77c00a12b296075293fcd50b9f7001c7f5dd1edccae1dc278e8d15f5b6c70aea0710a",
    "public_key": "-----BEGIN PUBLIC KEY-----\nMCowBQYDK2VwAyEAJCck0ZY9iv4TdtzJAxiVCJ1J7AiDwYDZ0HwJSzd/few=\n-----END PUBLIC KEY-----\n"
  },
  "key_cert": {
    "not_after": "2027-09-13T16:32:17Z",
    "not_before": "2026-09-13T16:32:17Z",
    "root_key_id": "251b14346af43d1d",
    "root_public_key": "-----BEGIN PUBLIC KEY-----\nMCowBQYDK2VwAyEA/jJuYipI/y6/GDbKYKO/opSFVu3yu0MjlTQ9qtZrKjg=\n-----END PUBLIC KEY-----\n",
    "schema": "turiya/key-cert/1",
    "signature": "a93f8a31060bdcf2e92fa8667ac11e3d3e3d9801c1f5928adb7bce6e6f787dc029a804703bce025347424fce6067008172bdaf17cd6d04f82ba644c98642f900",
    "subkey_id": "5d303baa00a6b243",
    "subkey_public_key": "-----BEGIN PUBLIC KEY-----\nMCowBQYDK2VwAyEAJCck0ZY9iv4TdtzJAxiVCJ1J7AiDwYDZ0HwJSzd/few=\n-----END PUBLIC KEY-----\n"
  },
  "timestamp": {
    "schema": "turiya/rfc3161/1",
    "tsa_url": "https://freetsa.org/tsr",
    "token": 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    "imprint": "048e61aff7e32bee7af770d8e9dcfd04436f1acfffc1f6419acc0e5cab5c83c8",
    "gen_time": "2026-09-23T18:26:42Z",
    "ca_pem": "-----BEGIN CERTIFICATE-----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\nI2MLdq2qjZFDOCXsxBxJpbmLGBx9ow6ZerlUxzws2AWv2pk=\n-----END CERTIFICATE-----\n",
    "backfilled": true
  }
}